2025 Could Have Been Worse – Corporate and Company Law

Tariffs and political tumult didn’t do as much harm as some
expected and 2026 could provide some needed stability

Global M&A Outlook 2026 – Regional
perspectives

It’s fair to say 2025 did not live up to its promise of an
M&A recovery; but it also did not tank to the depths some
expected following domestic political turmoil and ongoing trade
tensions caused by tariffs and geopolitics.

Less is better

M&A in France increased in value over 20% compared to last
year, and increased in volume by around 10%, reflecting bigger
ticket sizes rather than overall activity. This concentration
reflects investor caution in an unstable and unwelcoming
environment, and a flight to quality with investors seeking trophy
assets rather than multiplying smaller transactions.

The year also saw a deepening trend of longer deals with
cautious buyers and sellers willing to hold assets to increase
competition or pause processes awaiting better conditions. In
parallel, deals have become more legally sophisticated, with
negotiations growing lengthier and more complex. This evolution
reflects the impact of intensified regulatory scrutiny, reshaping
the market into one where caution, compliance, and strategic
foresight are now central to deal-making.

French corporates go hunting abroad

Perhaps searching to mitigate their exposure to France in an
uncertain local climate, large French corporates were particularly
active abroad in 2025, embracing international expansion by giving
birth to some of the most notable deals of the year, proving that
strategic transactions are not fatally impacted by domestic
issues.

Banijay, a French entertainment and gaming group acquired
Germany’s sports betting group Tipico for €4.8 billion,
while BPCE acquired Portugal’s Novo Banco for €6.4
billion, making it one of Europe’s largest cross-border banking
deals in a decade. Orange strengthened its international footprint
by taking full control of its Spanish joint venture. Meanwhile, in
aerospace, Thales, Airbus, and Leonardo signed a memorandum of
understanding to merge their space divisions in a €6 billion
deal, a move poised to create a European, if not global,
champion.

The fact that the market price of many corporates involved in
these transactions ticked up after the announcements showed
investor appetite for substantial transactions (as well as perhaps
a certain fatigue with the status quo). This reaction could
encourage more corporates to follow a similarly bold strategy.

Sectors

Technology remained a key driver of M&A activity, with AI,
cybersecurity, and cloud computing attracting significant interest,
from both tech investors and industrial players looking to
accelerate their digital transformation strategy.

A notable illustration is the €1.7 billion funding raised
by French startup Mistral AI, led by ASML, underscoring both the
strategic importance of AI capacity and France’s growing role
in Europe’s AI landscape.

Data centres also continued to be considered prime assets
bridging the technology sector and infrastructure sector, both very
healthy sectors for deals in 2025. Data centres can be expected to
continue to be popular assets into 2026 (with the expected auction
of Evernex as a prime example).

Healthcare and life sciences remain robust, with strong interest
in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and medtech. French companies
are both targets and acquirers in this globalised sector, with
partnerships and consolidations designed to boost research,
development and market reach.

Sanofi led the way by strengthening its specialty care and
vaccine portfolio with major acquisitions, including the US$9.1
billion purchase of Blueprint Medicines (which specialises in
treatments for rare immunological diseases), Dynavax Technologies
for US$2.2 billion (securing the only two-dose hepatitis B
vaccine), and a Dren Bio subsidiary for US$1.9 billion (adding a
first-class antibody program targeting autoimmune diseases).

Energy also continued to be a healthy sector, with notably
Ardian’s €2.3 billion acquisition of Akuo Energy from
Intermediate Capital Group.

Distressed activity

In 2025, France’s largest distressed M&A deals included
Atos selling its advanced computing assets to the French state for
about €410 million, Technicolor Group’s court-driven
carve-outs of major animation and VFX units to buyers like Rodeo FX
and TransPerfect, and Casino continuing its restructuring with
creditor-backed capital measures.

Deals in the wings

2025 was also about deals that didn’t happen.

The €17 billion offer for Altice’s telecom unit SFR
from its three competitors Orange, Bouygues and Iliad was rejected,
but observers expect renewed attempts or restructuring-driven
solutions.

Similarly, TDF, the French telecoms infrastructure provider, is
expected to return to the market after the sellers suspended the
sale process due to disappointing valuation.

Outlook for 2026

The outlook for the French M&A market in 2026 points to
cautious stabilisation after several years of volatility. Although
political and economic uncertainty persists, dealmakers appear
increasingly prepared to navigate this environment. Drivers that
maintained 2025 at acceptable levels such as continued
digitalisation, improving financing conditions, maturing energy
transition markets and assets, growing market resilience to
political aloofness, and, more recently, emerging factors like
increased defence spending, increasingly mature turnaround
opportunities, and an already visible backlog of delayed deals
expected to land on the market, could make 2026 the rebound year
that 2025 failed to be.

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